Schuckman: Prep football teams lining up to chase playoff bids at crucial juncture of regular season

QUINCY — It takes five.

To be considered for one of the 256 high school football teams to qualify for a postseason berth in Illinois, five victories are needed. Six wins guarantees a spot. Seven likely gets a favorable draw. Eight almost always results in a first-round home game. And nine means you’re perfect and at the head of the class.

So a third of the way through the season, who’s probably in? Who’s likely out? Who has hope? Who has to play like every week is a playoff game? And who might surprise us all by doing something incredibly special?

Let’s dive in.

Which winless team still is in the playoff hunt?

Illini West has the best chance to survive. The Chargers haven’t started a season 0-3 in anyone’s memory, but they’re first three opponents are a combined 9-0. No one left on their schedule is undefeated and the next three opponents are a combined 0-9 and have allowed 330 points collectively.

If the Chargers emerge from that stretch with a 3-3 record, the playoffs are possible, but getting to five wins by Week 8 is necessary. Illini West plays a neutral site game against Tuscola in Week 9, and the Warriors have made the playoffs nine of the last 10 times with a runner-up state finish in Class 1A in 2017.

Which team sitting at 1-2 will get in?

Brown County is a force defensively, having allowed just 16 points in three games and coming off a 32-0 victory over Unity-Payson. The Hornets’ ability to run the ball will determine how many games they ultimately wins, but Tate Fullerton as a punishing fullback is a game-changer.

The problem is the schedule. Still looming are matchups with No. 4 Camp Point Central at home, No. 3 Calhoun on the road and a Jacksonville Routt team capable of exploding offensively.

The next three weeks will determine how serious Pittsfield is about the postseason. If the Saukees can upend one of three teams currently undefeated in the Sangamo Conference, including No. 1-ranked Maroa-Forsyth, a path opens up. Pittsfield’s final three opponents are currently winless and have allowed 438 total points.

Pleasant Hill has been good defensively, pitching a shutout against Beardstown and limiting Triopia to eight points. But needing four victories over the next six weeks is a daunting task for a team with two undefeated teams on its schedule and a trip to Brown County in Week 9.

What is the cap on victories for the 2-1 teams?

Camp Point Central, the reigning Class 1A state champion which is ranked No. 4 currently, shouldn’t have many landmines to sidestep the final six weeks, although Brown County will present a challenge on the road and Winchester West Central is 3-0 so far and is a longer road trip than most in Week 9.

Still, the Panthers are as good defensively as anyone around, which could mean an eight-win season and a favorable playoff draw.

Quincy Notre Dame’s final record is harder to handicap because of the unknowns on the Raiders’ schedule. Springfield Sacred Heart-Griffin, which visits Advance Physical Therapy Field this week, isn’t in the top 10 in Class 5A and trailed Jacksonville at halftime last week. A trip to Springfield follows next week, and the Senators are undefeated.

Since QND hasn’t previously played most of the teams on its schedule, it’s tough to know how it stacks up against schools with double or triple the enrollment. Still, behind a defense that shut out Springfield Southeast last week, the Raiders likely will reach at least six victories and become a tough out in Class 2A.

Will either undefeated team finish that way?

This week will determine a lot.

Quincy High School, which is ranked seventh in Class 7A, faces a stern test with a trip to Moline for a Western Big 6 Conference showdown. A trip to Jefferson City, Mo., to face state-ranked Capital City awaits in Week 9, but in between, the Blue Devils face only one team with a winning record.

That means back-to-back undefeated regular seasons for the first time in program history is possible and a third straight playoff bid is virtually guaranteed.

Meanwhile, Macomb has a pair of hard-fought victories to its credit, but the Bombers’ first three opponents are a combined 0-9. Macomb must face undefeated Farmington and unbeaten Elmwood-Brimfield in Weeks 6 and 7 — both on the road — but could be 5-0 at that point and already headed to the postseason.