Crim: View of Cardinals as MLB season opens contains myriad of questions
Welcome to arguably the best week on the sports calendar.
It begins with college basketball crowning a men’s champion Monday night. The matchup features two of the sport’s blue bloods in Kansas and North Carolina, although many were hoping Mike Krzyzewski would get a fairy tale ending to his career. (Proud Mizzou graduates will be in the Tar Heels’ camp.)
Then, the Major League Baseball season opens Thursday, beginning a six-month regular-season odyssey. Opening Day offers an annual renewal of hope for fans dreaming of their favorite team reaching the World Series, unless, of course, they are rooting for the Orioles or Pirates.
Finally, someone will slip on a green jacket late Sunday afternoon at Augusta National. No golf tournament played on American soil can match the pageantry and history of the Masters, the only major played at the same venue each year. The plot will thicken if Tiger Woods decides to tee it up.
It doesn’t get any better than this.
However, the NCAA tournament and Masters are events, one played over three weeks, the other four days. Despite the intrigue, they will be in the rearview mirror next week and we will move on.
Baseball is different, despite a needless lockout that nearly sabotaged the season. The sport, as my friend and neighbor Tony Cameron has so accurately described it, is a companion. Everyone who grew up listening to games daily on a transistor radio and poring over boxscores in the newspaper understands.
Most baseball insiders view the Brewers as the team to beat in the National League Central Division once again, especially if they can find the offense to complement their pitching. The Dodgers, with their fat checkbook, are clear favorites to represent the NL in the World Series.
So where does that leave the Cardinals, the only divisional team considered to have a legitimate shot to unseat the Brewers? Here is a sampling of what people are writing:
Ryan Fagan, The Sporting News: The Cardinals are in a unique situation in 2022. They are very capable of competing for the NL Central crown and a making a deep October run — remember, they had a 17-game winning streak and won 90 last year, with a very similar roster — but they’re also trafficking heavily in nostalgia this season.
Franchise icon Yadier Molina had already announced that the 2022 season would be the final one of his career, and just a few days ago St. Louis brought franchise icon Albert Pujols in on a one-year deal, which he announced would be the final season of his career, too. Both will wind up in the Hall of Fame. And then there’s starer Adam Wainwright. He turned 40 last August, in the stretch run of one of the finest seasons of his outstanding career. He has hinted at retirement but hasn’t said for sure what he’ll do.
In the Cardinals’ ideal scenario, all three repeat their 2021 performances — Wainwright functions as the reliable staff ace, Molina provides the defense, leadership and knack for clutch hits (he batted .327 with runners in scoring position last year) and Pujols again pops 17 homers in 300ish plate appearances as the part-time DH — and the trio lifts the club to a division title.
But age is undefeated in baseball, and Pujols is 42, Wainwright is 40 and Molina turns 40 in July. Regression certainly is possible. Injuries certainly are possible. If regression happens and all three continue to play, but at a lower production level, that’s a problem. If they’re hurt and their replacements don’t perform, that’s a problem. The Brewers are really good and the NL Central won’t be won with 87 victories.
Neil Paine, FiveThirtyEight: If you believe the statistical projections, the Cardinals may not offer the Brewers much resistance in their bid to repeat as division champs. St. Louis has, however, quietly made improvements over the offseason, including the addition of lefty Steven Matz to shore up a rotation that ranked 19th in WAR last season.
Though a subsequent shoulder injury to Jack Flaherty set that progress back some, new Redbirds manager Oliver Marmol will be leading a roster that contains no shortage of potential — potential that was never more on display than when St. Louis won 21 of its final 25 games to close out the 2021 regular season.
For better and for worse, the meaning of that scorching stretch looms large over the Cardinals’ 2022 chances. On the one hand, St. Louis was just 69-68 before that run began, seeming to mark a second straight season of basically .500 play for the franchise. On the other hand, the Cardinals’ .840 winning percentage from Sept. 8 onward was easily the best in baseball, showcasing top-five ability on both offense and defense.
So which segment of the season was more indicative of the Cardinals’ true talent?
Bernie Miklasz, Scoops With Danny Mac: If the Cardinals need help — a push to win the division — will the front office ramp it up? Or will we see more of the same from management: the frustrating willingness to go easy rider and settle for a wild-card spot instead of aiming for a higher level of success. If you’re going to put Wainwright, Molina and Pujols together for one last campaign, then why not make it extra special by putting a better team around them?
How will the unofficial DH platoon work out? Corey Dickerson bats left and has been an above-average hitter against right-handed pitching in each of his nine MLB seasons. Over the past three seasons he’s batted .288 with a .808 OPS against RHP. And when Pujols is utilized in a way that maximizes his performance, he’s shown that he can punish left-handed pitching. … If Marmol manages Pujols as Joe Maddon did in Anaheim, Pujols won’t be set up for success. If Marmol manages Pujols as Dave Roberts did in LA, Pujols can provide value as a powerful weapon vs. lefties.
Is Paul DeJong on the verge of becoming a plus hitter again? His performance in spring training is encouraging. And clearly his head is clear, and his confidence is up. But it’s only spring training. He doesn’t have to be a great hitter to justify his place as the starting shortstop. (DeJong is a proven asset defensively.) But if he can be an above-average hitter, he’ll add another threat to the lineup. Think of 2019, when DeJong slugged .444 with a .762 OPS and 30 homers.
Will Nolan Arenado conquer Busch Stadium this season? This didn’t receive as much media attention as it should have, but in his first season in St. Louis Arenado batted .228 with a .287 OBP and .435 slug at Busch Stadium. And on the road he batted .279 with a .336 OBP and .549 slug.
Similar question: can the Cardinals’ offense find a way to increase the production at Busch Stadium in ‘22? Just a quick and dirty number: last season the Cardinals ranked 27th in OPS (.695) and 25th in slugging (.385) at home – but were fifth in OPS (.752) and fifth in slugging (436) in road offense.
Will the prospects have a significant presence on the big club? Outfielder/DH Lars Nootbaar will be part of the mix, but what about some of the other guys? The pre-2022 offseason hype over Nolan Gorman and Juan Yepez seems fallacious now. The Cardinals will likely need some pitching-staff reinforcement from left-handed prospect Matthew Liberatore. Super-utility candidate Brendan Donovan could grind out a role. And the Cardinals traditionally promote hard-throwing rookie relievers from the minors when the need arises.
Katie Woo, The Athletic: The Cardinals mostly know who their starting position players will be to open the season. Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Dylan Carlson, Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neill will all resume their starting roles. Paul DeJong will likely be the Opening Day shortstop. Yadier Molina will still start primarily, but backup catcher Andrew Knizner is expected to see incremental increases in playing time and could see more starts with Molina being incorporated in the team’s DH-by-committee approach. That committee is also expected to include Pujols and Dickerson.
But how the starters will appear in the lineup is expected to fluctuate often. The combination of a universal DH along with solid depth allows for multiple variations of the starting lineup, and some of the most analyzed choices will start at the top. The Cardinals didn’t have a true leadoff hitter last season, though they elected to go with the switch-hitting Edman often. He drew criticism in that role, mainly because of his low .308 on-base percentage, and he struggled heavily against right-handed pitching.
But Edman, a threat on the bases when he reaches, could still see time leading off this season, even with his lackluster spring numbers. … Carlson, another switch-hitter with lofty power, is an enticing candidate for the spot. Carlson led off at times last season and spent ample time with Matt Carpenter learning how to tweak his approach as a hitter. Carlson learned better plate discipline and stronger patience, but there was a concern that he was backing off his power in an attempt to get on base. Harrison Bader is speedy and has had a solid spring, but would probably be better-served batting ninth, i.e. as a double leadoff hitter.
The good news is the Cardinals have the bandwidth to switch players around, a concept they haven’t always been able to apply to their roster. As with many aspects of their lineup, St. Louis probably won’t have a true leadoff hitter, but Carlson is the frontrunner for the most reps there.
So, sit back and enjoy the week. It’s like no other.
Here are the links to the stories referenced:
Five questions facing the Cardinals before Opening Day – The Athletic
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